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News & Information

  • Note to Subscribers: Q2 2021 Hotel Horizons® Release and Historical Performance Update

    by Matt Mullen | Sep 08, 2021
    CBRE Hotels Research is scheduled to release our Q2 2021 forecast this week. This quarter you will see revisions to historical performance data that were the result of methodology changes enacted by our data provider, Kalibri Labs.  

    Kalibri Labs revised its historical performance and supply metrics for past periods to account for the following enhanced hotel performance research: a re-estimation of ADRs in markets with high percentages of independent hotels; a complete and necessary audit of their hotel census; the addition of two new data providers; and the reclassification of Independent Hotels into their most logical chain class. A complete breakdown of the changes is provided by Kalibri Labs in the document linked below.

    2021 Kalibri Labs Data Methodology Updates

    Our comparison of the history provided by Kalibri Labs for our upcoming report to what was published 90 days ago revealed the following: 
    • - Historical performance recalculations did impact certain markets. We found the greatest variances in two categories:
      • - Large urban markets with independents
      • - The lower-priced segment
    These two groups require the greatest need to estimate performance.
     
    We have assurance from Kalibri Labs that they are committed to reducing the frequency and magnitude of revisions to their procedures. Our top priority continues to be the delivery of our most current and up to date thinking possible. As such, we will continue to proactively communicate any changes that impact our product. 
  • Q2 2021 U.S. Macro-Outlook | Expecting Sturdy Growth Ahead

    by Matt Mullen | Aug 04, 2021

    CBRE Econometric Advisors has published the Q2 2021 Macro-Outlook.

    Key Takeaways:

    • We assume that COVID-19 will be manageable as the U.S. economy normalizes. Although COVID-19 cases will fluctuate the deployment of vaccines will limit the number of chronic cases that overwhelm the health system and materially impede economic activity. 

    • Presently, air travel and restaurant visitor volumes are back to pre-pandemic levels. U.S. consumers will remain aggressive in coming quarters and continue to shift spending from goods to services. This will push the U.S. economy from a ‘recovery’ to an ‘expansionary’ phase.
     
    • Growth in labor-intensive sectors, such as leisure & hospitality, will drive 4.5% employment growth in 2021 and the labor market should exceed pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022. This outlook is predicated upon rising labor market participation, which should get a boost from children going back to school in the autumn and unemployment benefits being scaled back.   
     
    • Our outlook for inflation has shifted upwards as the combination of surging demand, supply bottlenecks, wage growth and index base effects have increased prices by >5% Y-o-Y. But most of the factors driving CPI are transitory and inflation should fall back to the low-2% range by next year. Specifically, imbalances in the microchip space—a key input into many durable goods—are expected to even-out in coming quarters, putting downwards pressure on inflation. 

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