myShare® is a tool that allows a user to forecast any submarket, comp set, or subject property based on the movements of the larger market in which they operate. Our past analysis has shown that that 75 to 80% of a hotels performance can be attributed to the market in which it is located. myShare incorporates our Hotel Horizons market forecasts as a guidewire to enable a user to gain strategic insights into the future performance of a submarket, competitive set, and individual property.

Submarkets Tab:

Begin by naming your myShare report and then selecting the market, submarket, and sector in which your property is located. After completing this information save your report so you can return to it later.

The submarket tab shows five years of historical data based on STR’s history and a five year forecast based on CBRE Hotels’ Americas Research’s Market level forecast.

You can manually adjust the supply levels if you know the supply change that will occur in your submarket and you can refer to your Hotel Horizons PDF report for insight into your submarket’s pipeline, otherwise, myShare will default to the market level supply forecast.
On the right side of the screen you will notice the Submarket penetration. This is how you can customize your forecast for the submarket. MyShare defaults to the average historic penetration, but you can adjust this based on your own knowledge of trends and expectations for the submarket. Important factors to keep in mind if you change the penetration rate: future renovations and expansions, changes in management, and more generally if future years will look like past years.
As you change the penetration, you will see the submarket forecast change on the fly. If you make a mistake or are unhappy with the number you’ve entered you can click “average” to return to the default penetration.
Once you’re satisfied with your submarket forecast, you can export into excel if this is the only data you need. For this example we will keep going through the platform so let’s move to the competitive set tab.

Comp Set:

The competitive set tab allows you to forecast your competitive set in the same way as the submarket. After naming your comp set you will need to choose which penetration baseline to use in your forecast. In this example we will use our submarket forecast, but you should test both and see if your compset varies more closely with your market or the submarket. You then can enter the number of rooms in your comp set as well as the performance data you have for it. At least one year of past data is required for myShare to work, but you can enter up to five years of historic data. As you enter your comp set data myShare will calculate a forecast. Once again on the right side of the screen you can adjust future penetration rates or use the default/average to inform your forecast. After you have entered your comp set data and made any changes you want to the penetration you can view a five year forecast of your comp set and export the data to excel. Now let’s move on to your subject property.

Subject Property:

Similar to the prior tabs, the subject property tab requires you to pick your property type, enter your room count, and enter at least one year of historical performance data. If you have already entered your historical performance in the my Property section of the PIP, then select it from the list and it will fill in your historical performance. Once again, you will have the option of which level of the market to penetrate, either the market, submarket, or your comp set. In the example we use our Comp Set, but you should also review the variation between your property and market and submarket to understand what group of hotels your property more closely follows. If your room count has changed or you expect it to change, you may edit this here as well. As you enter your property’s data, you can see myShare calculating your properties forecast on the fly, based on the average penetration. Note that if you are penetrating your compset, the RevPAR penetration will mirror the historic RevPAR Index in your STR report.

Penetration levels may be altered if you wish to adjust the forecast based on how you think your property will perform relative to your compset, or you may leave them as the average.

With all your property data entered and penetration levels set you can proceed to the summary tab to view the results of your myShare analysis.

Summary:

On the summary tab you can easily compare historic data and the forecasts you’ve created for the market, submarket, your comp set, and your property. Using the myShare charting tool you can quickly and easily compare numerous metrics including: supply demand, occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR in terms of levels and percent change. You can also review how the penetration has varied over time. You can easily export the summary into excel or as a PDF to enable you to share among colleagues. As new forecast data is made available with our quarterly updates, you will be prompted to update your myShare with our updated forecast data, which will let you efficiently see how changes in our market forecasts might flow through to your property.

Portfolio:

From the myShare® homepage, you can view all the myShare® reports that you have prepared. All reports you have completed will have a check mark in the completed column. You can aggregate your myShare® data into a portfolio by clicking the portfolio link. Here you can select which myShares® you want to include in your portfolio. Once you’ve selected all your myShares® for your portfolio, they will be aggregated into one forecast you can easily view.
Occupancy – Demand divided by supply. Overall Percentage of hotel occupied with guests for a given period

Average Daily Rate (ADR) - Revenue divided by Demand. The average rate a guest can expect to pay during a specified period of time.

Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) - Revenue divided by Supply: Overall utilization of a given property’s supply of rooms. Dollars of revenue per room available in a specified period of time.

Supply - Average number of rooms available during a specified period of time.

Demand - Average number of rooms sold during a specified period of time.

Revenue - Gross dollar income of room sales during a specified period of time.

Upper-Priced includes Luxury, Upper Upscale and Upscale properties*

Lower-Priced: includes Upper Midscale, Midscale, and Economy properties*

* - Based on STR's chain class definition http://www.str.com/Media/Default/Documents/STR_Chain_Scales.pdf

Hotel Horizons®

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