Economic growth should moderate in 2019, but remain reasonable, driven by the remaining impact of fiscal expansion, the capital spending cycle and high consumer confidence.

Our baseline Q2 2018 forecasts remain largely unchanged from last quarter. While growth in the first half of 2018 was particularly strong, growth in the second half will likely moderate as financial conditions become tighter and the one-time effects of the export surge during Q2 likely begin to fade.

Our baseline forecasts for Q1 2018 remain largely unchanged from last quarter. We expect the government’s fiscal stimulus to boost growth, though gains are modest given that the economy is operating at near-capacity.

The U.S. economy ended 2017 on a relatively strong note, its 2.3% GDP growth up from 2016's 1.5%. January’s impressive jobs report and jump in wage growth further demonstrated the domestic economy’s strength. The new tax plan should encourage firms to invest more in their factories and workers, likely pushing wage growth and productivity higher. Given the shrinking labor pool, job growth will moderate, but overall, strong consumption spending, higher private investment and fiscal expansion will ensure solid growth in 2018. The investment environment for U.S. real estate remains attractive due to strong fundamentals and limited risk.

The economy remains on the path discussed last quarter; little has changed in our macro outlook since Q1. Real economic activity has been tracking at the same pace as last year, despite stronger business and consumer sentiment since Donald Trump’s inauguration.

The U.S. economic expansion continues at a steady pace, likely to reach its ninth year without a problem, though it is hard to see growth accelerating to the 3% that President Trump has promised. Rather, 2017 should bring a familiar dose of 2% GDP growth and 150,000 new jobs monthly—uneventful, but exactly what the economy needs at this stage of the expansion.

The U.S. economic expansion is in its eighth year and showing no signs that it will end soon. At the same time, it's difficult to envision a sudden burst that wold propel growth onto a much higher trajectory. Most likely is that 2017 will bring a familiar dose of 2% GDP growth and 150,000 new jobs per month, as the EA baseline forecast assumes.

The U.S. has a new president with bold policy proposals that will surely have economic impacts, though it is too soon to know what they will be. Our upside and downside forecasts now reflect a wider range of possible outcomes. Policy changes aside, the economy is poised to slow over this year and next. Consumer spending will continue to be the primary driver of economic growth.

Job gains will slow as the labor market tightens, but wages and labor force participation are finally improving. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election results has had a negligible impact on the economy. The Fed will nudge interest rates higher in 2017; longer-term monetary policy is more uncertain.