U.S. Macro Outlook Q2 2017

by James Lane | Aug 16, 2017
Economic assumptions for baseline and alternative scenario forecasts

The U.S. economic expansion continues at a steady pace, likely to reach its ninth year without a problem, though it is hard to see growth accelerating to the 3% that President Trump has promised. Rather, 2017 should bring a familiar dose of 2% GDP growth and 150,000 new jobs monthly—uneventful, but exactly what the economy needs at this stage of the expansion.

With a few lucky breaks and some wise policy choices, this could extend growth for several years. Insufficient will to do the right thing regardless of political expedience would meanwhile push the economy toward a mild, short recession beginning early in 2019.
 
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