U.S. Macro Outlook Q2 2018

by James Lane | Aug 29, 2018

U.S. Macro Outlook Q2 2018

For U.S. GDP, Q2 2018 saw the strongest growth since Q3 2014, due to the lagged effects of 2017's buoyant global economy, the tax cuts and the stimulus still being provided by the only-moderately-higher interest rates. Although the ongoing trade tensions could potentially dampen hiring activity in the coming quarters, the past few months’ weaker-than-expected hiring has little to do with trade uncertainty and more to do with a shortage of workers. The tariffs imposed thus far are modest and have a relatively low impact on total U.S. trade. Provided that a full-blown trade war does not occur, the potential impact for commercial real estate is little. 

Our forecasts remain largely unchanged from last quarter. While growth in the first half of 2018 was particularly strong, growth in the second half will likely moderate as financial conditions become tighter and the one-time effects of the export surge during Q2 likely begin to fade.


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