U.S Macro Outlook Q4 2018

by James Lane | Mar 05, 2019
  • Buoyant economic growth, driven by strong corporate and consumer confidence, characterized 2018. Consumer confidence remains elevated,
    but survey data suggest it may have since declined to a Trump-administration low owing to since the 35-day partial government shutdown.
  • Business confidence has also been shaken by the U.S.-China trade dispute and financial market volatility. Though the government shutdown’s
    direct impact is negligible, several negative knock-on effects rippling through the U.S. economy are a cause for concern.
  • January’s jobs report showed solid gains across all economic sectors. Average monthly job gains for 2018 stood at a solid 218,000.
    Unemployment remains at its lowest rate in nearly two generations. The fiscal stimulus will continue to benefit consumers, but with the economy
    at or near full employment, job growth will likely moderate in 2019.
  • Wage growth reached 3.2% in January, consistent with a tightening labor market. Although wage growth is significantly better than it has been
    throughout the expansion, it still isn’t historically commensurate with current unemployment levels, nor is it keeping pace with the spending
    consumers have registered over the past three quarters.

    Download the full report here.