U.S Macro Outlook Q2 2019

by James Lane | Aug 29, 2019
The first half of 2019 was stronger than expected, with a strong rebound in consumer spending in Q2. The sustainability of consumer spending will depend on how the U.S.-China trade situation plays out. 

Job gains have moderated in recent months, while the unemployment rate remains the lowest in nearly two generations. Wage growth reached 3.2% in June and will likely continue as employment growth slows.

Some data continue to reflect uncertainty and mixed signals from the economy.

We now anticipate an extended period of low but positive economic growth preceding a pick-up in H2 2021. We still expect some shrinkage in employment during 2021, as the economy slows, but less than we had previously. 

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