The Upcoming Recession… Or Not!

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Key Takeaways

“The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions” Paul Samuelson, 1966

In this article I question the conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy will soon experience an economic recession. Understanding the timing of recessions obviously has far reaching implications for many sectors of the economy, but even a mild recession impacts industries that depend on discretionary spending far more than those that do not. Hence, participants in the lodging industry remain closely tuned in to expert opinions about the timing and severity of the next recession. What has been gnawing at me is the ‘story’ line promoting the idea of an upcoming recession. Too many times I hear that a recession is an imminent threat because the U.S. has ‘not had one in a long time.’ The U.S. economy is experiencing a historic recovery period from the last recession, but this fact does not mean a recession will occur anytime soon.