Q2 2019 Hotel Horizons® Forecasts Update

by Matt Mullen | Aug 22, 2019

Hotel Horizons® Q2 2019
Sept. 2019 - Nov. 2019 edition now available

We have completed our national and market level forecasting. Our data platform has been updated and new statistics are available on the Property Information Portal (PIP).

Features of our National Hotel Outlook Include:   

CBRE Hotels Research forecasts a deceleration in U.S. lodging performance during the second half of 2019.  After rising by 2.1 percent during the first half of the year, the pace of demand growth will slow to 1.4 percent for the balance of 2019.  As a result, CBRE is forecasting the national occupancy level to decline by 0.2 percent from 2018 to 2019.  Fortunately, changes in room rates tend to lag changes in occupancy, so the annual increase in ADR will remain at 1.1 percent.  For the year, CBRE is now projecting a RevPAR increase of just 0.9 percent, 110 basis points below the forecast we published in June of 2019.

The slowdown in demand will show its impact on ADR during 2020.  As we have in the past, CBRE is forecasting a 0.8 percent decline in occupancy during the year because supply growth rises to 2.1 percent.  As a result of the reduced outlook for lodging demand in 2019, we believe ADR growth in 2020 will be limited to 2.0 percent.  For 2020, CBRE is forecasting a RevPAR growth rate of 1.2 percent.

While 2019 and 2020 growth has become disappointing relative to 90 days ago, CBRE’s outlook for the anticipated economic “blip” in U.S. lodging performance during 2021 has improved.  Accordingly, our forecasts for demand and ADR growth in 2021 have been adjusted upward.  CBRE is now forecasting a RevPAR gain of 0.8 percent in 2021, up from the 0.5 percent decline projected in our June 2019 reports.

Access the data through the platform to use a variety of analytical tools, or to download the PDF reports:

Email our Client Services team at; websales@cbre.com with login/access issues.