• U.S. Macro Outlook Q4 2017

    by James Lane | Feb 14, 2018
    The U.S. economy ended 2017 on a relatively strong note, its 2.3% GDP growth up from 2016's 1.5%. January’s impressive jobs report and jump in wage growth further demonstrated the domestic economy’s strength. The new tax plan should encourage firms to invest more in their factories and workers, likely pushing wage growth and productivity higher. Given the shrinking labor pool, job growth will moderate, but overall, strong consumption spending, higher private investment and fiscal expansion will ensure solid growth in 2018. The investment environment for U.S. real estate remains attractive due to strong fundamentals and limited risk.
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  • U.S. Macro Outlook Q3 2017

    by James Lane | Nov 15, 2017
    The economy remains on the path discussed last quarter; little has changed in our macro outlook since Q1. Real economic activity has been tracking at the same pace as last year, despite stronger business and consumer sentiment since Donald Trump’s inauguration.
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  • U.S. Macro Outlook Q2 2017

    by James Lane | Aug 16, 2017
    The U.S. economic expansion continues at a steady pace, likely to reach its ninth year without a problem, though it is hard to see growth accelerating to the 3% that President Trump has promised. Rather, 2017 should bring a familiar dose of 2% GDP growth and 150,000 new jobs monthly—uneventful, but exactly what the economy needs at this stage of the expansion.
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  • U.S. Macro Outlook, Q1 2017

    by James Lane | May 19, 2017
    The U.S. economic expansion is in its eighth year and showing no signs that it will end soon. At the same time, it's difficult to envision a sudden burst that wold propel growth onto a much higher trajectory. Most likely is that 2017 will bring a familiar dose of 2% GDP growth and 150,000 new jobs per month, as the EA baseline forecast assumes.
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  • March Jobs Report: Back to Reality

    by James Lane | Apr 10, 2017
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  • U.S. Macro Outlook, Q4 2016: Economic Assumptions for EA Forecast Scenarios

    by James Lane | Feb 07, 2017
    The U.S. has a new president with bold policy proposals that will surely have economic impacts, though it is too soon to know what they will be. Our upside and downside forecasts now reflect a wider range of possible outcomes. Policy changes aside, the economy is poised to slow over this year and next. Consumer spending will continue to be the primary driver of economic growth.
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  • U.S. MACRO OUTLOOK, Q3 2016: ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS FOR BASELINE AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO FORECASTS

    by James Lane | Nov 17, 2016
    Job gains will slow as the labor market tightens, but wages and labor force participation are finally improving. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election results has had a negligible impact on the economy. The Fed will nudge interest rates higher in 2017; longer-term monetary policy is more uncertain.
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  • CBRE EA'S Q2 2016 U.S. MACRO OUTLOOK AND BASELINE AND ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIOS

    by James Lane | Aug 30, 2016
    Click to read a summary of the economic assumptions that go into our lodging industry forecast.
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  • CBRE EA'S Q1 2016 ECONOMIC SCENARIOS

    by James Lane | May 27, 2016
    A review of CBRE EA's baseline forecast, one based on the Moody’s Analytics outlook, and three alternative forecasts—an upside, a downside, and a stress test scenario.
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  • ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING CBRE'S Q1 2016 FORECAST

    by James Lane | May 27, 2016
    First quarter economic data was a mixed bag, touting optimism one day and stirring caution the next. Financial markets and the headlines they generated in the media added fuel to the fire.
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