by
Jack Corgel, Ph.D., CBRE Consultant | Aug 15, 2016
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Key Takeaways
The line of demarcation between recovery and expansion isn’t always useful for assisting market participants in making capital allocation and other business decisions. At the expense of picking on EconomicDiscussion.net, their steady growth line in the exhibit 1 represents “the growth of the economy when there is no business cycle.” When is that? A potentially more meaningful delineation of recovery and expansion comes from a recent report produced by John Silva’s economics group at Wells Fargo Securities (2016), which marks the end of recovery and beginning of expansion occurring when real GNP rises past the pre-recession peak. I introduce a variant of this definition here to provide a snapshot of U.S. hotel market conditions in Q2 2016.